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What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60 per cent greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit - whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.

* This luscious, oversized hardcover volume collects as many Brian Bolland-illustrated Judge Dredd stories as THE LAW* will allow! (*Seriously, there's one we can't publish. Ever.) Within these hallowed covers the turmoil of John Wagner's Mega-City One rages, captured in such legendary tales as "Luna-1 War," "The Cursed Earth," The Day the Law Died!," "Judge Death," and many more. - Fuel the brain for maximum performance In the spirit of 'Goodnight Moon' and 'The Curious Garden' comes a stunning debut picture book filled with whimsy and creativity from brothers Terry and Eric Fan. One day, William discovers that the tree outside his window has been sculpted into a wise owl. In the following days, more topiaries appear, and each one is more beautiful than the last. Soon, William's grey little town is full of colour and life. And though the mysterious night gardener disappears as suddenly as he appeared, William and his town Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction download PDF are changed forever. With breathtaking illustrations and spare, sweet text, this masterpiece about enjoying the beauty of nature is sure to become an instant classic.

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Author: Philip Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Number of Pages: 352 pages
Published Date: 24 Sep 2015
Publisher: Cornerstone
Publication Country: London, United Kingdom
Language: English
ISBN: 9781847947147
Download Link: Click Here
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